What will happen to markets?

As a future marked by uncertainty seems to knock on our doors and permeate our daily lives, the international panorama has become a source of dissatisfaction across generations, particularly among the young. We, as a youth-led organization, see this global outlook as the very motor of our existence, driven by a strong aim to discuss and dissect the different realities our future professions will confront, as well as the social shifts we will inevitably have to face.

Artificial Intelligence, political polarization, the erosion of trust in public institutions and dialogue, violence, conflict, and ultimately war.

Last Tuesday, 10th of February, we had the opportunity to speak with the Vice Consul for Public Diplomacy of the United States in Catalonia. Far from finding comfort in her words, we instead encountered confirmation of many impressions that, as a young adults deeply concerned, we knew despite being reluctant to accept. The international panorama is not merely transforming; it is being disrupted. International law appears to be failing in its purpose, countries are challenging and abandoning dialogue in favor of action without accountability, and a localist perspective –bounded by electoral mandates and national frontiers– is erosioning global cooperation. New generations have not experienced war, and this very distance may paradoxically make its return more plausible. Even if this seems a pessimistic outlook, a more forceful and territorially assertive legal order appears increasingly likely as a consequence of escalating tensions. Artificial intelligence is advancing in ways humans could once only imagine, yet this transformation is unfolding now.

In the midst of this, one must strike the right notes and ask the right questions. As an economist, a rather particular question arose in my mind: What will happen to markets?

Artificial intelligence is on its way to replacing labor and reshaping productivity in unprecedented ways. No human mind or worker at any link of the value chain may be required to commercialize goods and services. Markets could then shift toward an intense competition of products, with AI models capable of identifying needs, developing new goods, conducting innovation and research, and finally managing commercialization. Yet on the other side of the market, demand will also be disrupted. The labor force may no longer be necessary for many of today’s occupations; unemployment would contract aggregate demand, class differences could intensify, and social divisions might deepen across states and societies.

However, another phenomenon is simultaneously unfolding. International trade and cooperation have deteriorated and seem to be moving, perhaps inevitably, toward an end –at least as we currently understand them. We have lived through a period of unprecedented mobility of people, labor, and capital, yet we scarcely noticed or valued it. Deglobalization will shrink markets, reduce supply, generate misalignments between economies, and create severe challenges for industries dependent on imported inputs, rendering machinery and production structures obsolete.

How is this new reality about to unfold? Optimists strive to preserve morale. As Philippe Sands, recently invested as honoris causa by Universitat Pompeu Fabra and a distinguished scholar of public international law, emphasized during the ceremony: this battle is a long-term one, and we must sustain hope. Without hope, we are left only with nihilism. We must never abandon our responsibility in the world, nor our hope.

Dialogue matters, the decisions of major powers matter, and the choices of citizens matter. Whether what has been described is an unavoidable destiny or a trajectory we can still redirect remains, ultimately, a question that only time will answer.